Learn more about market trends Investment Outlook 2020. Resilience after all.
Unforeseen and surprising events have shaped 2019, and we have little doubt that they will impact the world in 2020 as well. In light of such uncertainty, it is of utmost importance for investors to build resilient portfolios.
Even if the US-China trade war eases and Brexit uncertainty diminishes, the year 2020 is unlikely to be entirely smooth sailing: a polarized US presidential campaign, margin pressure, high corporate debt, and fewer interest rate cuts by the major central banks – not to mention unexpected political developments – are likely to sporadically test investor nerves.
Overall, however, we believe that the global economy and risk assets will continue to show considerable resilience in the face of these challenges. This is the message that the title of this year’s publication, Resilience after all, is intended to capture.
A recession is unlikely in light of ongoing monetary policy support, ample credit, some fiscal easing and low oil prices.
While we expect rather subdued economic growth in 2020 and returns that are generally lower than in 2019, a serious market downturn or even financial crisis seems unlikely to us. We observe a number of imbalances in various economies and sectors, but none of them seems serious enough to trigger such a crisis. Conversely, technological progress remains in full force and, importantly, policy makers will continue to provide support.
Credit Suisse House View in short
Global economy: UK
Still all about Brexit
Assuming a smooth Brexit process, our central expectation is that the UK grows somewhat more strongly in 2020 than in 2019. A Conservative majority would allow the UK to leave the European Union (EU) with a deal, while a Labour government (in a majority or coalition) would open the door to a second referendum. A hung parliament could produce deadlock and more uncertainty. While a nodeal Brexit is unlikely, in our view, such a scenario would cause a significant recession, with a decline in real GDP of 1% to 2% even if the Bank of England (BoE) eases monetary policy and the government loosens fiscal policy in response.
What to watch:
The BoE’s waitand- watch approach is likely to continue while Brexit uncertainty remains high. If the UK leaves the EU with a deal or if Brexit is canceled, there would be considerable upside to corporate investment and overall growth. The BoE might then begin hiking interest rates in the course of 2020.
Investment Outlook 2020.
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Resilience after all.
Our Investment Outlook lays out the key elements of the Credit Suisse House View for 2020. We have strived to provide a consistent and well-structured guide across the most important asset classes, markets and sub-segments. It suggests that investors who hold well-diversified portfolios, tilted toward areas of extra return, should continue to garner healthy returns. Furthermore, sustainability is increasingly relevant for investors, as it has already become a matter of great importance for voters and consumers around the world.