Media releases 2015

Credit Suisse, together with consulting firm Fuhrer & Hotz, published today the latest issue of the annual "Retail Outlook" study. After an exceptionally difficult year for the retail sector in 2015, Credit Suisse's economists expect a slight easing in 2016 with marginal growth of 0.3% in nominal retail sales. According to the survey of sector representatives by Fuhrer & Hotz, retailers are cautiously optimistic about prospects for 2016 with companies in the food sector slightly more optimistic than their colleagues in the near and non-food sector. On an EUR/CHF exchange rate in the region of 1.10, shopping tourism is likely to stabilize in 2016 at the high level seen in 2015. According to the economists, foreign consumer prices in 2014 were 30% lower compared with Swiss prices in the case of food, while furniture prices were 26% lower and clothing 38% lower. These price differentials are largely down to higher provision costs in Switzerland. In a scenario, the Credit Suisse economists calculate the impact of a 15% rise in the EUR/CHF exchange rate on consumer spending. The outcome of this is that Swiss household spending on food, clothing and furniture falls by a total of CHF 1.3 billion.

The Swiss Federal Department of Finance issued its proposal for an amendment to the Swiss “Too Big to Fail” (TBTF) regime, including the new total-loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) requirements, for consultation. These detailed requirements confirm certain proposals in the TBTF legislation review that was announced by the Swiss Federal Council on October 21, 2015 and provide additional clarity around the planned changes to the regime.

Credit Suisse expects the Indonesian economic recovery in 2016 to be supported by recently announced economic stimulus packages, as well as more pro-growth fiscal and monetary policies. The bank forecasts Indonesia’s GDP to expand at 5.2 percent in 2016, above the 4.9 percent consensus. Indonesia’s market is expected to benefit from economic recovery next year. Credit Suisse forecasts the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index to reach 5,300 by the end of 2016, providing a nearly 20 percent upside from its current level.

Credit Suisse Private Banking expects the global outlook for 2016 to be better than 2015 led by the Eurozone and Japan while many emerging countries are likely to stabilize albeit at low levels. The US could slow down due to constraints set in place by several macro factors whilst Australia and Canada would be sub-par due to lower commodity prices. The UK is likely to remain fairly robust as real wages rise against a tighter monetary policy backdrop. China should avert a hard landing scenario on the back of further policy easing, moderate fiscal expansion with some infrastructure activity along with sustained consumption spending and services whilst the property sector has seen significant inventory depletion.

Credit Suisse economists have slightly lowered their Swiss economic growth forecasts for 2016 (from 1.2% to 1%). The strong Swiss franc will continue to have an adverse impact on the export sector in 2016 and the domestic economy will therefore see a further slackening of growth momentum. The winter issue of "Monitor Switzerland" considers the effects of negative interest rates nearly one year after they were announced by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The economists take the view that negative interest rates are beginning to have the impact on CHF investors and foreign banks that the SNB intended. Using survey data, Credit Suisse economists also show that negative interest rates have only partly boosted investment by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Switzerland. However, the severe shortage of investment opportunities caused by negative interest rates is leading to a rise in high-yield real estate investment. The economists estimate that negative interest rates are providing around CHF 1 billion of relief annually in the area of government spending but point out that they are also creating long-term risks in the funding of retirement provision that could potentially place an additional burden on the government budget.

Credit Suisse believes the implementation of the 7th Central Pay Commission will start an INR 4.5 trillion consumption stimulus that can help accelerate India’s economic recovery. The risks to the market remain in global linkages: both from continuing redemption-based selling by foreign investors, as well as high revenue linkages for the larger listed stocks.

On December 2, 2015, Credit Suisse declared coupon payments for the following ETNs: Credit Suisse X-Links Multi-Asset High Income ETN (NYSE Arca: MLTI) On December 3, 2015, Credit Suisse announced expected coupon payments for the following ETNs: Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN (NASDAQ: GLDI) / Credit Suisse X-Links Silver Shares Covered Call ETN (NASDAQ: SLVO) Summary coupon information is provided below.

Credit Suisse Group AG has announced the results of the capital increase by way of a rights offering as approved by the shareholders at the Extraordinary General Meeting of November 19, 2015. By the end of the rights exercise period on December 3, 2015, 12:00 CET, 99.0% of the rights had been exercised and thus 258,445,328 newly issued registered shares were subscribed. We plan to sell in the market the 2,538,570 new registered shares that were not subscribed. The gross proceeds of the rights offering for Credit Suisse Group AG amount to CHF 4.7 billion.

Credit Suisse Group CEO Tidjane Thiam has joined the membership of the Group of Thirty (G30).

Credit Suisse Group AG has announced the results of the capital increase by way of a rights offering as approved by the shareholders at the Extraordinary General Meeting of November 19, 2015. By the end of the rights exercise period on December 3, 2015, 12:00 CET, 99.0% of the rights had been exercised and thus 258,445,328 newly issued registered shares were subscribed. We plan to sell in the market the 2,538,570 new registered shares that were not subscribed. The gross proceeds of the rights offering for Credit Suisse Group AG amount to CHF 4.7 billion.