HOLT® Global Market Commentary Disclaimer
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This material has been prepared by individual traders or sales personnel of Credit Suisse identified in this material as "Authors" and not by Credit Suisse's research department. The information contained in this document has been provided as general market commentary only and does not constitute any form of regulated financial advice, legal, tax or other regulated financial service. It is intended only to provide observations and views of these traders or sales personnel, which may be different from, or inconsistent with, the observations and views of Credit Suisse research department analysts, other Credit Suisse traders or sales personnel, or the proprietary positions of Credit Suisse. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by the trader or sales personnel at any time without notice. Credit Suisse accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of this material.
This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire and, in fact, provides only a limited view of a particular market. It is not investment research, or a research recommendation for regulatory purposes, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. The information provided is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision and is not a personal recommendation or investment advice. While it has been obtained from or based upon sources believed by the trader or sales personnel to be reliable, each of the trader or sales personnel and Credit Suisse does not represent or warrant its accuracy or completeness and is not responsible for losses or damages arising from the use of this material.
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Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding future performance. Backtested, hypothetical or simulated performance results have inherent limitations. Simulated results are achieved by the retroactive application of a backtested model itself designed with the benefit of hindsight. The backtesting of performance differs from the actual account performance because the investment strategy may be adjusted at any time, for any reason and can continue to be changed until desired or better performance results are achieved. Alternative modeling techniques or assumptions might produce significantly different results and prove to be more appropriate. Past hypothetical backtest results are neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future returns. Actual results will vary from the analysis.
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The HOLT methodology does not assign ratings or a target price to a security. It is an analytical tool that involves use of a set of proprietary quantitative algorithms and warranted value calculations, collectively called the HOLT valuation model, that are consistently applied to all the companies included in its database. The HOLT valuation model is a discounted cash flow model. Third-party data (including consensus earnings estimates) are systematically translated into a number of default variables and incorporated into the algorithms available in the HOLT valuation model. The source financial statement, pricing, and earnings data provided by outside data vendors are subject to quality control and may also be adjusted to more closely measure the underlying economics of firm performance. These adjustments provide consistency when analyzing a single company across time, or analyzing multiple companies across industries or national borders.
The default scenario that is produced by the HOLT valuation model establishes a warranted price that represents the expected mean value for a security based upon various factors, including the use of third-party data and empirically derived fade algorithms that forecast a firm's future cash return on capital and growth rates over an extended period of time. A default set of algorithms apply to all the securities. As the data are updated, the warranted price updates automatically. A company's future achieved return on capital or growth rate may differ from the result generated from the default scenario that is produced by the HOLT valuation model. Additional information about the HOLT methodology is available upon request.
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