USA ILS Blog
With global warming receiving increased media attention, the record insurance losses caused by natural catastrophes in 2017 and 2018 have made the general public, and the insurance community in particular, question a potential relationship between climate change and increasing insurance losses.
Accurate hurricane forecasting is a bit like the holy grail for reinsurers and ILS managers. If you know whether a hurricane season will be active or inactive, or whether to expect no landfalls or many landfalls, you may be able to adjust your portfolio, for example by taking on more risk during an “inactive” season or buying more hedges during an “active” season. But how reliable are hurricane season forecasts? And what is the forecast for the 2019 hurricane season, which has already begun?