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Resilience after all

Unforeseen and surprising events have shaped 2019, and we have little doubt that they will impact the world in 2020 as well. In light of such uncertainty, it is of utmost importance for investors to build resilient portfolios.

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Michael Strobaek l Nannette Hechler-Fayd'herbe

Global Chief Investment Officer l Global Head of Economics & Research and CIO IWM

Even if the US-China trade war eases and Brexit uncertainty diminishes, the year 2020 is unlikely to be entirely smooth sailing: a polarized US presidential campaign, margin pressure, high corporate debt, and fewer interest rate cuts by the major central banks – not to mention unexpected political developments – are likely to sporadically test investor nerves.

Overall, however, we believe that the global economy and risk assets will continue to show considerable resilience in the face of these challenges. This is the message that the title of this year’s publication, Resilience after all, is intended to capture.

While we expect rather subdued economic growth in 2020 and returns that are generally lower than in 2019, a serious market downturn or even financial crisis seems unlikely to us. We observe a number of imbalances in various economies and sectors, but none of them seems serious enough to trigger such a crisis. Conversely, technological progress remains in full force and, importantly, policy makers will continue to provide support.

The following pages lay out the key elements of the Credit Suisse House View for 2020. We have strived to provide a consistent and well-structured guide across the most important asset classes, markets and sub-segments. It suggests that investors who hold well-diversified portfolios, tilted toward areas of extra return, should continue to garner healthy returns. Furthermore, sustainability is increasingly relevant for investors, as it has already become a matter of great importance for voters and consumers around the world.

We hope you will find this publication helpful and wish you a successful year ahead.

Michael Strobaek, Global Chief Investment Officer of Credit Suisse presents the key findings of the Investment Outlook 2020