Populism, Robots and the Next Recession

Thursday, March 30, 2017

08:30 - 09:20 Ballroom 2  



Jonathan Wilmot

Founder, WilmotML; former Head of Macro Investments, Asset Management, Credit Suisse

Super low interest rates and populism go together. The link is part globalization, part a classic failure of private sector animal spirits, part the impact of austerity and re-regulation, for which QE is a palliative not a cure. Today the resulting social and political strains are compounded by the rise of machine learning and robots. Aiming for super full employment, even at some short term inflation cost, would be a much better policy prescription for these challenges than protectionism and nativism. Which way global policy shifts in the wake of President Trump’s election will determine how and when the next recession occurs, and drive investment returns for good or ill.