The Asian USD credit market has grown substantially in recent years, with the total amount of outstanding bonds in 2019 close to USD 1tn, compared to less than USD 200bn in 2008. The number of issuers also increased fourfold to about 600 over the same period.
The January 1 renewal cycle is important for investor returns as more than half of all reinsurance contracts are renewed in this time frame.
Natural catastrophes such as hurricanes and earthquakes have existed longer than mankind itself. Property insurance as we know it today is much younger, but nevertheless can be traced back to the seventeenth century. The first stochastic natural catastrophe models, helping insurers and reinsurers better understand and price the risk, were only developed in the late 1980s.
With global warming receiving increased media attention, the record insurance losses caused by natural catastrophes in 2017 and 2018 have made the general public, and the insurance community in particular, question a potential relationship between climate change and increasing insurance losses.
Accurate hurricane forecasting is a bit like the holy grail for reinsurers and ILS managers. If you know whether a hurricane season will be active or inactive, or whether to expect no landfalls or many landfalls, you may be able to adjust your portfolio, for example by taking on more risk during an “inactive” season or buying more hedges during an “active” season. But how reliable are hurricane season forecasts? And what is the forecast for the 2019 hurricane season, which has already begun?
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