公司信息 瑞信:全球中产阶级的财富净值自2000年以来倍增至80.7万亿美元,占全球财富32%

瑞信:全球中产阶级的财富净值自2000年以来倍增至80.7万亿美元,占全球财富32%

亚太区占全球中产阶级46%; 中国中产阶级人数全球最多,达1.09亿名

香港,2015年10月13日-瑞信研究院(Credit Suisse Research Institute)今天发表第六份年度《全球财富报告》,集中探讨中产阶级自2000年以来的发展。报告指出,全球中产阶级的人数和财富在全球金融危机前迅速增长,但增幅在2007年后放缓,而日益扩大的财富不均,令各地区中产阶级所占的财富比例下降。

报告指出中国及香港的财富按年录得稳健增长,部分原因为受惠于货币与美元挂钩,不受当期汇率变动影响。按当期币值计算,中国家庭财富总值增加1.5万亿美元至22.8万亿美元,增幅为7%,中国的财富总值现仅次于美国,全球排名第二,并预期于2020年前增至36万亿美元。自2000年以来,中国中产阶级的财富大幅增长330%至2015年的7.3万亿美元,占全国财富的32%。

香港方面,在2014年年中至2015年年中,本港的家庭财富总值增长8.3%至1万亿美元,反映股值和楼价的稳健升幅,以及港币与美元挂钩的影响。 44%的成年人口属于中产阶级的财富水平,拥有2,830亿美元,占财富总值的26%。

瑞信私人银行及财富管理部英国、东欧、中东及非洲地区首席投资总监Michael O'Sullivan说:「全球经济连续第六年取得3%以上的实质本地生产总值增长,反映部分大型新兴市场的经济虽然放缓但增速仍然可观,加上部分先进国家,特别是欧洲的经济增长带来支持。货币政策开始出现分歧,联储局料会逐步收紧货币供应,但其他央行却可能放宽或维持货币政策不变。这在某程度上说明过去一年财富的相对变化。展望未来,我们预期全球经济增长将轻微加快,中国经济在过渡至消费和服务业主导的过程中将趋于稳定。在这情况下,财富势必保持升轨,并可能每年增长6.6%(包括通胀)至2020年的345万亿美元。」

瑞信私人银行及财富管理部亚太区首席投资总监伍泽恩 (John Woods) 说:「在全球各地,中产阶级的规模、健康和资源被视为经济发展速度和可持续性的关键因素。中产阶级往往是新消费趋势的中心,亦是企业家和其业务方面主要的需求和资金来源。《全球财富报告2015》探讨全球中产阶级自2000年以来不断转变的情况。报告开创先河,以财富级别而非收入区间来界定中产阶级。」

2014至2015年的财富变化

报告指出全球财富总值自2014年年中起至2015年年中减少12.4万亿美元(按当期币值计算),至250万亿美元,跌幅为4.7%。美元兑其他主要货币升值,抵销了财富正面的基本走势。若按固定汇率计算,全球财富总值上升13万亿美元,增幅为5.1%。北美洲和欧洲合共占全球家庭财富总值67%,北美洲仍然是全球最富裕的地区,以4.4%的增幅领先全球财富增长步伐。其他地区的财富均告下跌,其中拉丁美洲和欧洲录得历来最大跌幅,分别为17.1%和12.4%,即累计减少1.5万亿美元及10.7万亿美元。亚太区*(包括中国和印度)的财富则下跌5.1%或3.9万亿美元。

若货币按固定(平均)汇率而非2014年年中和2015年年中的汇率计算,各地区本会录得介乎3.4至7.3%的财富增幅(见图1)。因此,虽然去年的财富下跌主要受汇率影响,但我们也不应过度重视币值对财富造成的负面后果,因为有关情况在不久将来可能扭转。

按国家划分,美国、中国和英国等主要经济体的财富去年录得按百分比计算的最强劲增长。美国的财富增幅最高,达4.6万亿美元或5.7%,中国的财富显着增长1.5万亿美元(7%),英国的增幅则较温和,为3,600亿美元(2.4%)。美国(85.9万亿美元)、中国(22.8万亿美元) 和日本(19.8万亿美元) 是全球最富裕的三个国家,中国今年取代日本占据第二位。主要由于汇率的不利走势,日本的家庭财富下跌15%,至20万亿美元。

汇率变动抵销了股票和楼价走势的影响

虽然全球股市在2013至2014年平均上升20%以上,但却于年内普遍下跌(只有美国、印度和日本股市微升,其中日本股市的上升反映日圆兑美元贬值的影响)。但中国股市的市值反而于截至2015年年中的12个月上升约150%,然而,由于金融资产仅占家庭财富的一半,而股票只占金融资产小部分,故中国家庭财富受股市走势的影响较预期小。中国内地股市其后由6月中旬起急转直下,对整体财富造成的负面影响有限, 但其效应会因来年任何人民币兑美元贬值而放大。另外,全球以楼价作为代表的非金融资产相对稳定,75%国家录得3-9%的增幅。

股票和楼价走势被美元兑其他货币的整体升值所抵销,令全球财富减少约10%或25万亿美元,相当于自金融危机以来财富增幅缩减一半以上。除了人民币录得轻微升幅(0.1%)的中国,以及那些货币与美元挂钩的国家外,其他各国货币兑美元均告贬值。英镑下跌8%、加元下跌15%、日圆下跌17%、欧罗下跌19%,而俄罗斯卢布下跌39%。巴西、新西兰、挪威和土耳其兑美元汇率亦贬值超过20%。

新西兰、澳洲和新加坡-亚太区成人平均财富最高

按成人平均财富计算,瑞士仍然是全球最富裕的国家,当地于2015年的成人平均财富为567,100美元,其次为新西兰(400,800美元)和澳洲(364,900美元),新加坡(269,400美元)排名第八(见表2 )。按财富中位数而言,财富不均程度较低的国家拥有较高的成人平均财富中位数,新西兰和澳洲是两个成人平均财富中位数最高的国家,分别为182,600美元和168,300美元,新加坡排名第七,为98,900美元,日本排名第八,为96,100美元。

太区占全球中产阶级46%;中国拥有最庞大的中产阶级人口

《全球财富报告2015》以财富级别而非收入区间来界定中产阶级。报告以美国作为基准国家,当地以拥有5万至50万美元的财富(按2015年年中的价格计算)来界定中产阶级成年人,并采用国际货币基金组织的购买力平价值系列,按本地购买力计算,得出其他国家的等值中产财富范围。

报告指出,全球中产阶级成年人的数目已由2000年的5.24亿名增加1.4亿名或27%,至2015年的6.64亿名,相当于成年总人口的14%。在各地区中,北美洲的中产阶级共有1.05亿名,占成年总人口比例39%,全球最高,其次是欧洲(1.94亿名,33%)、亚太区(3.03亿名,10%),而非洲和印度只有3%。亚太区占全球中产阶级46%,中国的中产阶级虽然仅占全国成​​年人口的11%,但按绝对值计算却是全球最多,达1.09亿名,超越美国9,200万名的中产阶级成年人(见图2)。

不少先进国家拥有高比例的中产阶级,其中澳洲以中产阶级占成年人口66%领先其他国家,比利时和新加坡的中产阶级占成年人口60%以上,意大利、日本、西班牙、台湾、阿拉伯联合酋长国和英国符合中产阶级资格的成年人口达55%以上,而爱尔兰、荷兰和新西兰的中产阶级所占比例达50%以上。在亚太区,韩国和香港的成年人口有超过44%属于中产阶级的财富范围。

在全球各地区和大部分国家,中产阶级的财富自2000年以来亦增长强劲,由44.4万亿美元倍增至80.7万亿美元,目前占全球财富的32%。同期,亚太区中产阶级的财富增长70%至27.2万亿美元、非洲中产阶级的财富增长102%,而拉丁美洲中产阶级的财富增长109%。印度中产阶级的财富增长了150%,而中国中产阶级的财富则大幅增长330%。

然而,自2008年起,财富增长并没有使中产阶级数目与发展中国家的人口同步增长。自2007年高峰期以来,中产阶级成年人的数目已下降13%,上、下财富阶层的成年人则分别增长19%和11%。此外,财富增长重心已倾向于财富水平较高的阶层,富裕阶层的财富自2007年占财富总值增加了5%。上述两项因素令各地区中产阶级所占的财富自2007年起下跌9%至13%。

财富展望:预计亚太区财富按年增长8.1%至2020年的107万亿美元

全球经济增长前景较之前预期逊色,因此我们向下修订预测。在未来五年,报告预测全球财富增长38%至2020年的345万亿美元,按年增长6.6%(包括通胀),而去年预测为7.1%。预期北美洲仍然是最富裕的地区,到2020年的家庭财富达122万亿美元,年增长为5.6%,亚太区的家庭财富料会增长48%,即年增长8.1%,至107万亿美元,超越欧洲(102万亿美元,年增长6.3%)。亚太区占全球财富的比重预期由现时的29%升至2020年的31%。按国家划分,预期美国将继续录得最高的财富总值,到2020年达113万亿美元,其次为中国,达36万亿美元。

预测亚太区百万富翁人数在未来五年将增长66%

瑞信研究院估计,全球的百万富翁数目到2020年可能超过4,930万,增长逾46.2%,在这些地区中,亚太区和非洲的百万富翁数目增幅将会最高,分别达66%和73 %(但后者的基数低),较全球百万富翁数目的预测增幅46%为高,北美洲的百万富翁数目增幅为33%,欧洲为55%。到2020年,亚太区占全球百万富翁的比例将由现时的19%升至22%。

整体来说,新增百万富翁仍将集中于高收入经济体,在未来五年将有1,400万名成年人归于这个类别。随着百万富翁人数增加,百万富翁的财富净值可能按年增长8.4%。新兴市场占百万富翁财富的比重在2020年可能达到9.1%,较现水平高出1%。

财富金字塔顶层-中国录得超高净值人士最高增幅23.9%

我们估计,全球有123,800名个人资产净值超过5,000万美元的超高净值人士,当中44,900人的个人资产值最少达1亿美元,而4,500人的资产值超过5亿美元。强美元令超高净值人士的数目较2014年年中减少800人;但根据我们的计算,资产值超过5亿美元的人士却轻微增加。按地区划分,北美洲在地区排行榜占前列位置,共有61,300名超高净值人士,欧洲有29​​,900名超高净值人士(24%),而亚太区则有27,600名超高净值人士(22%) 。美国继续占全球超高净值总人数的最大比重,中国则排行第二,录得超高净值人士的最高百分比增幅23.9%。

Notes to editors

  • “Asia Pacific” in this press release includes data for China and India
  • The report defines net worth or wealth as the value of financial assets plus real assets (mainly real estate) minus household debt.
  • The figures presented in the report are based on the best available data on household assets and debts, estimated and updated where necessary.
  • Data for 2015 and 2014 relate to mid-year values; the figures for earlier years indicate year-end values. 
  • Unless indicated otherwise, figures are expressed in nominal dollars and are not inflation adjusted.
  • Full information on sources and methodology is provided in the Global Wealth Databook 2015.
  • Projections to 2020 are made by the Credit Suisse Research Institute and are based on forecasts of the three components of wealth: financial assets, non-financial assets and debts.

For a copy of the Credit Suisse Research Institute report, “Global Wealth Report 2015,” please visit www.credit-suisse.com/researchinstitute. Full information on sources and methodology is also provided in the Global Wealth Databook 2015.


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Appendix

(1) Biographies of the authors

Anthony Shorrocks is Director of Global Economic Perspectives Ltd. After receiving his PhD from the London School of Economics (LSE), he taught at the LSE until 1983, when he became Professor of Economics at Essex University, serving also as Head of Department and Director of Economic Research for the British Household Panel Study. In 2001, he was appointed Director of the World Institute for Development Economics Research of the United Nations University (UNU-WIDER) in Helsinki, where he remained until 2009. He has published widely on income and wealth distribution, inequality, poverty and mobility, and was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 1996. Publications include “The age-wealth relationship: A cross section and cohort analysis” (Review of Economics and Statistics1975), “The portfolio composition of asset holdings in the United Kingdom” (Economic Journal 1982), and, with Jim Davies and others, “Assessing the quantitative importance of inheritance in the distribution of wealth” (Oxford Economic Papers 1978), “The distribution of wealth” (Handbook of Income Distribution 2000), “The world distribution of household wealth” in Personal Wealth from a Global Perspective (Oxford University Press 2008), “The global pattern of household wealth” (Journal of International Development 2009) and “The Level and Distribution of Global Household Wealth” (Economic Journal 2011).

Jim Davies is a Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Western Ontario in Canada, where he has been a faculty member since 1977 and served as chair of the department from 1992 to 2001. He received his PhD from the London School of Economics in 1979. Jim was the director of the Economic Policy Research Institute at UWO from 2001 to 2012. In 2010, he completed a five-year term as managing editor of the academic journal Canadian Public Policy. From 2006 to 2008, he directed an international research program on household wealth holdings at UNU-WIDER in Helsinki and edited the resulting volume, “Personal Wealth from a Global Perspective” (Oxford University Press 2008). He has authored two books and over 70 articles and chapters in books on topics ranging from tax policy to household saving and the distribution of wealth.  Publications include “The Relative Impact of Inheritance and Other Factors on Economic Inequality” (Quarterly Journal of Economics 1982), “Wealth and Economic Inequality” (Oxford Handbook of Economic Inequality, Oxford University Press, 2009), and several publications on wealth authored jointly with Anthony Shorrocks and others. Jim is also the editor of “The Economics of the Distribution of Wealth,” published earlier this year by Edward Elgar.

Rodrigo Lluberas is an analyst at the Research department of Uruguay Central Bank. He received his PhD in Economics from Royal Holloway College, University of London and his MSc in Economics from University College London. He has been a visiting scholar at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and

an Economist at Towers Watson in London. Prior to undertaking his MSc, he worked for three years as an economic analyst at Watson Wyatt Global Research Services and more recently as a research assistant at NESTA. His main areas of expertise are pensions, consumption and wealth.

(2) Scope and Methodology

Credit Suisse provides the most comprehensive and reliable source of information available on global household wealth. This analysis comprises the wealth holdings of 4.7 billion adults across more than 200 countries – from billionaires in the top echelon to the middle and bottom sections of the “wealth pyramid,” which other studies often overlook. The methodology is robust, established over many years of analysis, and completely transparent with regard to the underlying sources and their quality.

The 2015 Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report (the report) and the more detailed accompanying Global Wealth Databook aim to provide the most comprehensive study of world wealth. Unlike other studies, they measure and analyze trends in wealth across nations, from the very bottom of the “wealth pyramid” to ultra-high net worth individuals.

This fifth Wealth Report continues our close collaboration with Professors Anthony Shorrocks and Jim Davies, recognized authorities on this topic, and the principal authors of “Personal Wealth from a Global Perspective,” Oxford University Press, 2008.

The Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report lays the foundation for a long-running examination by the Credit Suisse Research Institute of one of the crucial research areas in economics, and a vital driver of future megatrends. Moreover, it continues the thought leadership and proprietary research undertaken by the Research Institute over the past years.

Of note, China and India are treated as separate regions in the report due to the size of their populations.

(3) The Credit Suisse Research Institute

The Credit Suisse Research Institute identifies and provides insights on global themes and trends. The objective of the Research Institute is to provide our clients with leading edge advice by leveraging internal and external expertise, thus reinforcing our integrated global bank approach.

The Institute was established in December 2008 to conduct research on new emerging or influential topics, working with some of the world’s most distinguished experts, academics and institutions and Credit Suisse’s global network of internal analysts, and makes this available throughout the Bank for the business units to create innovative products, solutions and services for Credit Suisse’s clients.

Clients increasingly require global reach, local expertise and competitive products and services from the financial services industry. The Institute’s investigations are conducted to furnish clients across divisions and regions with an in-depth analysis of fundamental social, economic, scientific, environmental and demographic trends that are expected to impact global markets in the future.

The Research Institute is chaired by the Chairman of the Board of Credit Suisse, Urs Rohner, and managed by an Operating Committee from Credit Suisse’s research units from across the Bank. The Institute draws on eminent Senior Advisors as well as selected Credit Suisse researchers to provide advice, insight and guidance on global themes and trends for the Institute’s research agenda. The Institute’s Senior Advisors are characterized by their interdisciplinary backgrounds and networks across sciences, academia, business and the political arenas. They include Walter B. Kielholz, The Rt. Hon. Sir John Major, KH, CH, Liu Mingkang, Prof. Laura D. Tyson, and Dr. Ernesto Zedillo. For more information, visit: https://www.credit-suisse.com/researchinstitute.