Where Are the Opportunities for Swiss Exports this Year?
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Where Are the Opportunities for Swiss Exports this Year?

Asian emerging economies, the USA and the UK present the best sales opportunities for Swiss exporters in 2016. The robust economic development in these markets and the expected tendency of the Swiss franc to depreciate in the next twelve months should raise demand for Swiss goods.

The export prospects for Swiss enterprises for 2016 look the best in Asian emerging economies, above all in China. Credit Suisse projects that China's economy will expand by 7 percent and that the Swiss franc will depreciate by 6 percent against the Chinese yuan over the next twelve months. This should keep demand for Swiss products running high.

The Top Export Markets in 2016

* The weighting used to compute the ranking (4/5 economic growth, 1/5 exchange-rate evolution) stems from a historical analysis of export elasticities.

** Expected appreciation over twelve months compared to the exchange rate on December 12, 2015.

Rank

Country

Average expected GDP growth for 2016 in %*

Expected appreciation of national currency against CHF (1 year) in %**

1

China

7.0

6.1

2

India

7.3

4.1

3

Philippines

6.0

7.3

4

Malaysia

4.9

11.6

5

Mexico

2.8

18.5

6

Indonesia

4.9

9.8

7

UK

2.5

12.6

8

Hong Kong

2.4

11.4

9

USA

2.3

11.1

10

Australia

2.4

10.7

11

New Zealand

2.4

9.2

12

Japan

1.1

13.7

13

Canada

1.6

11.6

14

Turkey

2.8

6.7

15

Thailand

3.0

5.7

16

Singapore

2.1

7.9

17

South Korea

2.9

4.3

18

Taiwan

2.5

4.3

19

Poland

3.5

0.1

20

Spain

2.7

1.9

21

Norway

1.5

6.6

22

Sweden

2.7

0.5

23

Eurozone

1.7

1.9

24

Germany

Italy 

1.6

1.5 

1.9

1.9

25

Russia

–0.5

9.4

26

France

1.3

1.9

27

Brazil

–3.3

7.2

Source: Credit Suisse

USA Remains Export Engine

The USA is likely to remain an engine of demand for Swiss products. Credit Suisse projects that the US economy will expand by 2.3 percent in 2016. In addition, the Swiss franc looks set to depreciate against the US dollar by around 11 percent over the next twelve months.

UK Strong, Eurozone Weak

In Europe, the prospects for exports to the UK are lifting off on the back of a projected growth rate of +2.5 percent for the UK economy and an expected 13 percent depreciation of the Swiss franc against the British pound. In contrast, demand for Swiss goods is likely to be muted in the Eurozone, which is still the biggest sales market for Swiss enterprises. Economic growth in the Eurozone is estimated at +1.7 percent for 2016, and the Swiss franc appears likely to depreciate slightly against the euro by 2 percent.

Overall Moderate Growth

The Credit Suisse Export Barometer, which tracks foreign demand for Swiss products on a trade-weighted basis for each upcoming quarter, currently stands at a level of 1.00 and is thus exactly in line with the historical average. This means that the new year is starting off in a bit better shape than the way last year ended. The average export barometer reading for 2015 was 0.94.

Credit Suisse Export Barometer

Credit Suisse Export Barometer. In standard deviations, expansion threshold = 0

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, PMIPremium, Credit Suisse / IDC