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HOLT® Reports

HOLT® is Credit Suisse's leading equity analysis and valuation tool that provides investors with unique insights into a company's performance, valuation, future expectations, and risk considerations using a database of over 20,000 companies across 70 countries.

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Report

October 4, 2021

HOLT Macau Gaming Insights: Further downside risk if priced at the average CFROI® of global peers

Macau gaming operators are experiencing worse earnings cuts vs last industry down cycle, whereas implied expectations are still elevated despite the sharp decline in share prices. We leverage HOLT Portfolio sensitivity tool and make reference to global casino & gaming peers to stress test valuation of all major names.

September 23, 2021

HOLT® Asia Tech Insights: Apple supply chain – Selective opportunities amidst supply constraints and longer wait times

CFROI for the Apple supply chain is forecast to reach a 10Y high in FY22E, led by rising silicon content in semis, while hardware names could see more intense competition. Overall revisions sentiment remains positive, but will the supply chain see positive price momentum like in prior cycles? This report highlights key ideas across the sector.

September 7, 2021

HOLT® China Real Estate Insights: Assessing opportunities at policy crossroads

The potential alteration of land auction system may help improve developers' margins potentially in the longer term while the introduction of the "three red lines" could lead to different asset growth profiles going forward. Hence, we run sensitivity analysis in the HOLT Lens Portfolio Tool to assess potential upsides for developers.

August 23, 2021

HOLT China Wind Power Insights: Revisiting their market implied expectations and HOLT Business Sustainability

In light of China's quest for carbon neutrality by 2060, the utilities sector is under spotlight. In this report, we revisit the market-implied expectations of the three HK-listed electricity producers with leading wind power capacities in China after their strong share price returns since late-2020.

August 9, 2021

HOLT China/HK Insights: Highlighting attractive stocks among recent China/HK additions

As an ongoing effort to keep the China/HK database up-to-date, HOLT has added 107 China A-shares and 30 HK stocks over the past 9 months. In this report, we revisit these new additions and rank them using the HOLT Scorecard Factors of Quality, Momentum and Valuation as well as growth potential based on HOLT cashflow Growth rank.

July 28, 2021

HOLT® China Internet Insights: Implied expectations post correction

Chinese Internet firms have come under increased scrutiny by the government this year. The latest labour rights guidelines announced this week triggered a major sell-off, with key stocks seeing double-digit declines. Amidst earnings cuts and CFROI decline, this report analyzes the implied growth expectations of key stocks after the sell-off.

July 13, 2021

HOLT® China Online Healthcare Insights: Opportunities behind the high market-implied expectations

With the accelerating digitalization trend, China online healthcare companies are priced with a larger gap between market-implied CFROI® and near-term CFROI forecasts than the overall healthcare sector. However, this expectation gap is comparable to listed peers in the US market and consistent with other high-growth sectors. We focus on three online healthcare companies in this note.

June 28, 2021

HOLT China A-Share Insights: Selectively screening for Quality and Value amid a lackluster backdrop

While China led the recovery from COVID-19 in 2020, the magnitude of forecast CFROI expansion is now expected to lag APxJ. In the absence of broad-based earnings upgrades, companies with strong momentum attributes are well rewarded by investors. This report includes idea screens on (i) Best in Class, Restructuring and Contrarian styles for Value ideas; (ii) Quality defensive and stable yield stocks for defensive positioning, (iii) stocks with strong outlook supported by earnings upgrades, (iv) oversold high quality companies.

 

June 14, 2021

HOLT® Asia Tech Insights: Staying on course for the upcycle - How we are positioned within semis and hardware

CFROI for Asia tech is expected to continue expanding to reach multi-year highs by 2022. While valuation has re-rated, it is nowhere as expensive as US or Europe. Amidst the global chip shortage, we remain positive on semis, preferring backend and fabless stocks. Downstream, we see opportunity to revisit laggards among 5G and cloud-related stocks.

June 4, 2021

HOLT® APAC Viewpoint: Identifying companies with high operating leverage poised to benefit from inflation

As rising inflation expectations remain a key focus among investors globally, we systematically examine APAC stocks to identify potential beneficiaries in this report. To do so, we identify companies that historically have higher economic earnings sensitivity to sales as a measure of the degree of operating leverage (DOL).

May 17, 2021

HOLT APAC Viewpoint: Expecting record CFROI® in 2021/22; be mindful of historical fade pattrnes

Investors currently are pricing in high economic returns to sustain over next five years, while this could be questioned given that the CFROI improvement is largely driven by cyclicals that historically had low economic returns. In this report, we identify attractively valued eCAP stocks and also companies with high margins and valuation supports.

May 6, 2021

HOLT APAC Style Watch: Best In Class outperforms

Stocks exhibiting positive momentum and higher-than-average growth generated the strongest performance across Asia last month, as the rotation towards value paused despite encouraging economic data. While Growth and Momentum factors performed strongly standalone, the best returns were noted within those firms which also enjoyed Valuation support.

April 9, 2021

HOLT® APAC Ranking Model

The HOLT Ranking Model provides investors with a monthly ranking of APAC markets using a rules-based systematic process. HOLT's multi-factor model uses Valuation, CFROI Sentiment and Market Sentiment to rank each market. Taiwan continues to top for April while Singapore and Japan occupy second and third respectively.

April 7, 2021

HOLT APAC Style Watch: A higher conviction value rally

The 1Q of 2021 was dominated by rising bond yields and concerns about rising inflation, culminating in a Value led rally across the region. Encouragingly, while the performance of Value focused stocks remained strong MoM, higher Quality, lower market Risk stocks enjoyed a stronger contribution to performance in March relative to prior months.

March 12, 2021

HOLT® APAC Extreme valuation screens: Avoiding Extreme Valuation in Hyper growth stocks

Hyper growth stocks have fallen sharply in recent weeks, underperforming in Asian markets. While Value stocks appear appealing in strong economic cycle, hyper growth stocks provide a longer runway. In this report, we highlight cheap and overly expensive hyper growth stocks. We also highlight Value stocks that benefit from economic recovery.

March 11, 2021

HOLT China A-Shares Insights: Implications and screens from the recent Value rotation

China's CSI300 index is down over 3% YTD, making it one of the worst performing markets in APxJ this year. From a HOLT Factor perspective, China A-Shares investors pivoted from Momentum and Growth stocks to Value stocks last month. This report reviews the implied expectations of three best performing sectors and five deep value sectors in HOLT.

February 26, 2021

HOLT APAC Viewpoint: Are there still 'mispriced' Growth companies with strong Value support?

The market's preference for stocks with strong cash flow growth largely remains based on our observation. However, given the strong performance of growth stocks, the notion of looking for high growth companies with strong value support appears appealing. In this report, we leverage HOLT framework to identify mispriced growth+value stocks.

February 3, 2021

HOLT APxJ Real Estate Insights: China property management companies - no longer an undiscovered asset class and observations from earlier listings

The China property management industry saw a number of large cap new listings in Hong Kong late last year. In this report, we draw on the CFROI profile of earlier listed peers; asset growth profile of a set of high CFROI, asset light companies and longer term CFROI profiles of mature global facilities management companies to value these stocks.

January 14, 2021

HOLT APAC Viewpoint: Screening on recent factor performance and observations from past top performers

On back of the recent HOLT observations around CFROI improvements expected in 2021 and the ongoing strong performance of the HOLT Momentum and Growth factors, this report screens for companies that have stronger momentum with CFROI and asset growth characteristics of past top outperformers and expected CFROI recovery in 2021.

January 5, 2021

HOLT China A-Share Insights: Screening for opportunities amid a strong 2021 CFROI outlook

China A-share outperformed the broader APxJ region in 2020 and its CFROI is forecast to further increase to 6.3% in 2021E, the highest level since 2008. On the back of the strong rally, the pack includes screens on attractive laggards, companies with strong 2021 outlook and outperformers at risk

December 8, 2020

HOLT® APAC Style Watch: A low conviction rally to close the year

As 2020 draws to a close, we take a look at HOLT Factor and Investment Style performance across the region over the course of the year. In short, investors initially sought refuge in high quality firms and those with positive earnings and market sentiment amidst the initial pandemic-induced drawdown during the first quarter of the year. As the region gradually re-emerged from mostly successful lockdown strategies, HOLT's higher-risk, Value focused styles experienced a similarly sharp rally.

December 1, 2020

HOLT China A-Share Insights: Discovering the standouts within new additions in China A-share market

HOLT has added over 170 China A-shares over the past 18 months, extending our offering in the onshore market to over 2,000 stocks. This report analyzes the new additions by listing boards and ranks them using the HOLT Scorecard Factors of Quality, Momentum and Valuation as well as growth potential based on HOLT cash flow Growth rank.

November 9, 2020

HOLT HK/China Insights: Sifting through opportunities among recent HK new listings

The Hong Kong market is home to several large cap new listings and secondary listings for Chinese ADRs this year. To date, HOLT has added over 40 companies into our HK database. In the report we look at these new stocks and rank them using the HOLT Scorecard Factors of Quality, Momentum and Valuation as well as growth potential based on HOLT cash flow Growth rank.

‎‎October 27, 2020

HOLT® APAC Viewpoint: Large cap outperformers and what to do with them?

Year to date, 23 large cap companies (mkt cap > US$ 25 bn) in the region have doubled their share prices. HOLT's Flex Valuation Tools and Valuation Matrix are an efficient and disciplined way to assess various valuation outcomes for these stocks that have outperformed materially, helping investors to frame scenarios that they are most comfortable with.

October 12, 2020

HOLT Asia Consumer Discretionary Insights: Identifying attractive recovery opportunities with more room to run

Asia Discretionary outperformed for the past few months as consumption spending has started to bottom out. This report includes idea screens and industry group analysis to identify attractive recovery opportunities with more room to run.

September 25, 2020

HOLT China Insights: Screening for attractive H-shares as the discount to A-shares widens

The HOLT market implied discount rate differential for China A versus H dual-listed companies increased to 210 bps in September (from 150 bps in May), which is near an all-time high that was last also observed during the 2015 A-share market rally. This points to increasing valuation appeal for the H-shares. We screen for relative opportunities among H-shares.

September 18, 2020

HOLT China A-share Insights: Screening for value opportunities

While Growth led the year-to-date outperformance in China A, Value as a factor worked for the first time in August, whereas Growth gave up some of its YTD gains. This phenomenon continued into the first half of September. This pack includes screens for value opportunities including high quality laggards and companies at extreme valuation.

August 20, 2020

HOLT® APAC Viewpoint:  Identifying pockets of value / laggard opportunities

While Value as a factor hasn't worked on a YTD basis, value in Value is starting to emerge. The Value factor worked for the first time (on a full-month basis) since the crisis, and we see less negative consensus earning cuts as supportive for value outperformance. This note provides a number of ways to identify value opportunities in the region.

August 5, 2020

HOLT APAC Insights: Extreme valuation screens - Picking ideas among leaders and laggards?

Aggregate CFROI in APxJ is expected to recover in 2021, led by companies with strong Quality/Growth companies that are less impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. These companies have also generally led market performance since late 2018, as such, the valuation gap between leaders and laggards has reached levels that we not seen since the Tech bubble.

July 21, 2020

HOLT China A-Share Insights: Valuation check; selectively positioning in Growth and Quality

China's market implied discount rate fell by 110bp since March to 4.8% in July, largely driven by the lower discount rate of high growth stocks. Taking into account their outperformance, we screen for Growth ideas that are still attractive on our model. We also highlight Quality screens as the outlook remains resilient and valuation is supportive.

July 8, 2020

HOLT® APAC Viewpoint: Identifying Growth opportunities in Asia

Grouping growth stocks into Quality Growth and Hyper Growth can help investors better understand recent performance and focus on the right company characteristics when screening for ideas. Quality Growth has led market performance in three out of four years in Japan while Hyper Growth has emerged as a more viable investment sub-set in the APxJ.

 

June 9, 2020

HOLT® China A-Share Insights: Screening for opportunities at times of uncertainty

While China A-share is less volatile on a YTD basis vs broader APxJ region due to its more resilient CFROI forecast, we highlight three potential downside risks to forecast returns. Hence we suggest investors seek out high quality and strong momentum stocks and eCAP stocks. The pack also includes sector trend analysis with preferred ideas.

May 20, 2020

HOLT® APAC Viewpoint: Looking beyond 2020 CFROI®

The market has clearly rewarded companies that are expected to maintain or even improve their economic returns (CFROI) in the current environment. In contrast, market remains skeptical on companies with material CFROI decline this year but recovering in 2021. On average, this group of companies has underperformed by –12% in China.

April 24, 2020

HOLT® APAC Viewpoint Drawing inferences from companies updated with 2019 financials

We summarize the observations on the larger cap companies that we have updated in the HOLT APxJ database for December 2019 financials, including the impact of the new lease accounting standard under IFRS 16 and screen implications as forecast 2020 CFROI materially declines.

April 17, 2020

HOLT® Asia ex Japan Insights: Tourism stocks - Who's well positioned and who's at risk when China's outbound tourism slumped?

As people are asked to work at home and travel restrictions are becoming stricter amid the COVID-19 outbreak, tourism related stocks have not fared well. Considering the significance of China outbound tourism across Asia, this report profiled 60 stocks exposed to this theme, within Airline, Airport, Gaming, Hotel, Retail and Travel Agency.

April 2, 2020

HOLT® China Material Insights: Not too late to look at Anhui Conch and CR Cement

Cement stocks exhibited more resilient share price performance in recent month, attributable to their large domestic exposure to the infrastructure and property investment in China. Companies with higher operational quality and stronger balance sheet, such as Anhui Conch and CR Cement, could provide investors with a better exposure into the sector.

March 23, 2020

HOLT® APAC Insights: Seeking stability in higher quality yield stocks

Regional markets continue to exhibit high volatility. This week we screen for dividend stocks that have been sold-off despite having good operational quality, lower debt and strong cash flow profiles. The report also provides an update on HOLT MIDR, P/B and CFROI revisions relative to history.

March 3, 2020

HOLT® China A-Share Insights: Risk assessment using HOLT's Probability of Default and bottom up debt analysis

As CS China economist highlights that the containment efforts against COVID-19 virus may lead to strained cash flows, this report assesses the risk across sectors using HOLT's Probability of Default metric and bottom up debt analysis, and includes thematic screens to position along this theme. 

February 21, 2020

HOLT® China Consumer Insights: A tale of two halves in China baby product – Feihe and Hengan

With the outbreak of the COVID-19 in the region and subsequent strict quarantines and travel bans in place, earnings sentiment appears to have taken a hit in recent weeks. However, as markets appear to be resilient, we highlight companies that are still poised to deliver 2020 CFROI improvements despite their recent earnings cuts.

February 21, 2020

HOLT® Asia Tech Insights – NEV battery supply chain on HOLT

We explore the CFROI outlook for 48 companies in Asian NEV battery supply chain. Based on our observation that high CFROI companies are generally being appreciated within the supply chain, we identify 12 preferred stocks with resilient CFROI outlook as well as conservative valuation relative to respective domestic peers.

February 13, 2020

HOLT® APAC Viewpoint: More downgrades? Stocks that are down but not out

This report leverages the observations from CS CQi team on China baby product market and takes a closer look at the two leading players in either segments – China Feihe and Hengan through HOLT.

February 10, 2020

HOLT® APAC Style Watch: Flight to quality amid macro uncertainty

Regional investors sought the relative safety of high quality companies experiencing positive CFROI sentiment amid heightened macro uncertainty fueled by the coronavirus outbreak.

February 5, 2020

HOLT® APAC Viewpoint: Focusing on Quality stocks that are not overly expensive

Companies with strong HOLT quality attributes have generally worked well during periods of high market volatility. Given the uncertainty due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak in China, we suggest a tilt back to high quality companies in HOLT focusing on the ones that are not overly expensive and have strong 13-week and 4-week CFROI revisions for China A-shares.

January 10, 2020

HOLT® APAC Style Watch: Value extends its recent gains

Investors across the APAC region generally sought the relative safety of high quality firms for a majority of last year, irrespective of their prevailing momentum or valuation. However, for China A-share market, Momentum was the strongest factor in 2019, followed by Quality. Valuation as a factor did not work well among China A-share stocks last year.

January 9, 2020

HOLT® China A-share Insights: Positioning into 2020

CS China strategist's 2020 outlook for the China markets drew extensively on HOLT® analysis which we further elaborate on herein, highlighting a series of screen ideas by leveraging HOLT's® extensive 1,900 China A-share database that complement the various analysis.

November 25, 2019

HOLT® China Consumer Insights: Opportunities across Household Durables

Household Durables should appeal to investors who want Quality exposure in Consumer with stronger valuation support. Aggregate performance rebounded recently as the pace of earnings cuts stabilized. Also despite rally, valuation is still compelling as HOLT® P/B is trading near long-term median levels and remains at a discount to the broader Consumer sectors. The pack includes sub-industry analysis on Home Appliance, Home Furnishing and Consumer Electronics.

November 11, 2019

HOLT® APAC Ranking Model

The HOLT Ranking Model provides investors with a monthly ranking of APAC markets using a rules-based systematic process. HOLT's® multi-factor model uses Valuation, CFROI Sentiment and Market Sentiment to rank each market. The Taiwanese market is the top-ranked market this month followed by China H and Singapore.

October 4, 2019

HOLT® China A-Share Insights: Systematically identifying industry opportunities through the HOLT framework

To better identify pockets of opportunity in the China A-share market, we rank the 24 industry groups systematically through the HOLT® scorecard based on a company level assessment of Operational Quality, Momentum, and Valuation characteristics. Historically, highly ranked companies on the HOLT® Scorecard have outperformed over the long term.

September 2, 2019

HOLT® APAC Viewpoint: Picking up from August lows

This report screens for stocks that have fallen by at least 20% from its 52-week high share price and at least 4% in August. Given the backdrop of still negative consensus earnings revisions in Asia, our screens also focus on stocks that exhibit higher operational quality rank and a more resilient consensus earnings revision during the month.