Export Recovery Likely to Continue

Conditions for a further recovery in the export industry are good. First, the positive economic trend in purchasing countries is providing a tailwind: Our export barometer – which measures this trend – is well above the growth threshold. Second, the headwinds from an overvalued CHF versus the EUR are dying down. Hopes that the euro's depreciation has been halted are realistic in our view. However, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) tends to refrain from intervening in the foreign exchange markets if the Swiss franc appreciates as a result of improved Swiss growth expectations. Its main focus is on combating upward pressure that stems from political uncertainty. Even so, the latter is likely to continue declining in the euro zone as the economic recovery gains ground.