Asian Investment Conference 2023
China Quantitative Insight
Grassroots data driven intelligence content, leveraging our extensive data library and new alternative data sources to bring our clients a unique level of insight across several industry sector and macro trends.
CQi NEV Market Monitor: Why China’s auto price war has plenty of room to run
CQi’s latest surveys show the price war among Chinese automakers may last longer than expected and may pave the way for leading brands like BYD and Tesla to grab market share from their rivals.
CQi Business Monitor: March – what changed in the month and what to expect ahead
Manufacturers saw an 8% growth in domestic orders in February, in line with the rise in manufacturing PMIs that suggest stronger factory activity. Export orders rose unexpectedly by 0.6% YoY, although we’d argue that this was mostly the Chinese New Year effect and that export orders will weaken again in the next few months.
CQi Materials: What changed in the month and what to expect ahead
All of CQi’s materials panels saw their YoY demand indices move into positive territory in February thanks to the twist in CNY timing and the fading impact of COVID. Most of them expect March demand to stay positive YoY due to the lockdowns last year.
CQi ChartBook: March – seesawing consumer confidence
CQi’s latest surveys show an apparent cooling in consumer sentiment following a strong post-COVID jump in January. The disposable income of CQi’s consumer panel dipped MoM, although we are not too worried about this decline as it is more related to an earlier Spring Festival this year compared to 2022.
CQi Residential Property Survey: What changed in the month and what to expect ahead
This property survey shows positive YoY sales growth in February thanks to the improvement in buyer sentiment and the low base, but YTD sales were still negative YoY. For the first time since September 2021, prices across Tier 2, Tier 3 and Tier 4-5 cities all picked up MoM.
Consumer Monthly Watch: A step back after the surge
Confidence on CQi’s consumer monthly panel did not further grow in February after a big post-COVID jump. The fall in income growth is noteworthy but CQi is not so worried as businesses continue to see improvement. The most positive signal is in property demand but the improvement mostly stems from upgraders.
CQi ChartBook: February – Rising Sentiment
CQi sees a rally in sentiment across all survey panels in January as the country steps out of the zero-COVID shadow. Encouraged by the first positive disposable income growth in three months, consumers are more confident of their employers’ businesses and the broader economy.
Consumer Monthly Watch: Consumer sentiment jumps post CNY holiday
Confidence on CQi’s consumer monthly panel picked up after the Chinese New Year holiday. Key question for investors; is this a post opening bounce or the start of a durable improvement in sentiment?
CQi Materials: Easing liquidity supports price outlook
CQi’s materials panels generally saw a slow resumption of demand after the CNY holiday. Liquidity conditions for materials producers and the property-related sector eased in January, which supports our panels’ price outlook.
CQi NEV market Monitor: What changed in the month and what to expect ahead?
CQi’s latest surveys show Tesla may have a dilemma ahead as the window in which the brand can launch new models and versions to boost sales in China’s low and mid-end market is closing. That’s because its domestic rivals are steadily improving their value-to-performance options for consumers.
CQi Residential Property Survey
Thanks to fewer COVID infections and steady policy easing, CQi’s property panel saw buyer sentiment improve in January, especially in larger cities.
CQi Business Monitor – February: What changed for SMEs in the month and what to expect ahead
In the first full month since the end of the zero-COVID policy, there was a clear improvement in business conditions for the service SMEs on CQi’s panel.
CQi Solar Bulletin: Impact and implications of the price slump in silicon materials
CQi surveys show the price slump in silicon materials may pave the way for a solar market boom in 2023 despite the near-term slowdown in new order growth.
CQi Strategy: A precise measurement of how urban consumers have changed versus 3 years ago
In this report, we compare CQi’s Consumer Monthly Watch data collected in December 2019, the month when the world’s first COVID-19 case was reported in Wuhan, and in December 2022, the month when the three-year long zero- COVID estrictions in China were suddenly, and unexpectedly, dismantled.
CQi Financials: LGFV debt; move over property, this Grey Rhino is running faster
The recent 20-year bank loan extension given to a large LGFV in Guizhou province has elevated concerns around LGFV debt issues. Our surveys and official data suggest risks may be further exacerbated in 2023.
CQi Financials: Which banks may be more vulnerable in case of an LGFV default wave?
For this report, we examined which banks may be more vulnerable if a wave of LGFV defaults occur. We estimated banks’ risk levels in three scenarios: 1) when the debt risk is limited to Guizhou, 2) when the risk spreads to nine provinces or 3) when it spreads nationwide.
