Dynamic Listing Page Articles Archive 2021
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5G Driving Growth Despite Inflation, Covid and Wars
2021 closed out slightly light of our last update owing to ongoing supply constraints and slow China demand, with shipments growing 10% QoQ to 368mn and reaching 1.42bn, +4% YoY. 5G stayed on track and reached 560mn units above most market expectations 500-550mn and our prior 545mn.
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European Steel - Is the Market Right About Earnings?
For three reasons, the old idiom that ‘lower steel prices lead to lower equity prices’ may not hold true in 2022. First, solid fundamentals in steel (limited risk of de-stocking, China production growth, improving auto demand). Second, the market is discounting an unreasonably large drop in sector profitability in 2022. Finally, for the first time since 2007/08, the sector might become a capital-return story again.
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Is It Too Late for Digital to Drive Growth for Incumbent Banks?
Regulators (notably in China and India) are also pushing closed-loop digital (wallets) networks to interoperability. Fintechs have been allowed to offer online payment networks independently or in partnership with banks. Despite garnering a large share of customers, direct monetization potential for these fintechs is limited.
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Did 2021 Mark the Global Shift to Electric Vehicles?
The global transition to EVs is viewed mainly as an inevitability. But the transition comes with different narratives, as the dynamics for EV uptake are varied in each region. In 2021 Global EV sales increased 108% year over year and represented over 8% of new car sales. The progress is even more evident compared with 2019, when EVs were less than 3% of global new car sales.
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What Will Spark a Better Market Performance: Market Expectation and Our Wish Lists
China’s policymakers are doubling down to stabilise a weakening economy. Macro policies' focus are switching to pro-growth, property curbs are partially relaxed, and PBOC is becoming more accommodative (with record new loans and total social financing in January). However, the market seems not totally convinced and there’s an obvious mismatch between policy pace and the sluggish market performance.
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Is Springtime Screentime for Taiwan?
We believe panel supply/demand will be reaching an inflection point by mid-2022, after an abnormal 2021 (i.e., 1H21 in great tightness but turned into over-supply since 2H21), as the over-supply glut is expected to start narrowing in the coming months and will further improve into 2023, supported by moderating new capacity additions on early closure of LCD capacity by Korean panel maker and cancellation/push out of new fab constructions, demand recovery with normalized seasonality, and continue size migration for TV (up ~1.5-2.0” in 2022-23). With China’s subsidy policy shifting from TFT to semi-conductor industry and the potential closure of older fabrications in Taiwan and Korea, supply and demand dynamics could be less volatile beyond 2024 as consumers choose larger TVs.
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Future Cars - The Ultimate Personal Device
Netflix was a by-mail DVD rental service and now is a leader in online streaming; Apple was a struggling computer manufacturer and now has an entire ecosystem around its devices. At the moment, the automotive industry continues to sell highway transportation hardware, but the most successful companies in our coverage will likely have a story like Netflix or Apple in ~10 years. This review of the Automotive sector is not your grandfathers' Conestoga Wagon case study.
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Growth of the Electric Transportation Fleet in Brazil
The Brazilian economy has unique energy features, such as a prevalence of flex-fuel light vehicles and the highest blend of biofuels in gasoline and diesel. Moreover, Brazil is an emerging economy, where EVs are expensive relative to the average household income, and fiscal results limit the government’s ability to subsidize EVs.
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Welcome back to the US$100/bbl oil era
From an oil equities perspective, US$100/bbl today is a lot different from US$100/bbl in previous upcycles. Indeed, ESG is at the forefront of 'investors’ concern for the Energy sector, but is it possible that the market may have discounted oil equities too much and missed the fundamental improvement and earnings recovery?
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Advances in Telehealth via Digital Therapeutics
Telehealth usage picked up at the onset of the pandemic in 2020 and has since remained at elevated levels. Improved consumer and provider sentiment toward the use of telehealth and regulatory changes during the pandemic have driven the increased acceptance.
