Restaurants Mark to 2021 Market Share
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Restaurants Mark to 2021 Market Share

The restaurant industry has demonstrated impressive resilience, with 2021 sales +24%, reaching ~$576.5BN, nearly fully recovering vs. 2019 (-0.3%), even as 1Q21 sales were still depressed amid broad-based dining restrictions and reduced mobility.

Notably, total units were -0.9% in 2021 to ~626K, adding to -10.2% in 2020, with total units -11% vs. 2019, suggesting surviving restaurants are benefitting from the reduced supply.

The story is a bit different when looking at different parts of the industry, as chains in the top 500 generated $361BN+ in sales in 2021, +8.4% vs. in 2019, and sales among small chains & independents are -12.1% vs. 2019.

The top 500 chains have gained meaningful market share, representing 62.7% of industry sales in 2021, up ~500bps from 2019. Large chains also fared better with unit growth, as the top 500 returned to positive territory, +0.6% in 2021, and -1.2% vs. 2019. Small chains & independents saw another year of unit declines, -1.6% in 2021, with units -15.7% vs. 2019.

The limited-service segment (LSR) grew sales 16.2% in 2021, +9% vs. 2019 (implying 2-yr CAGR ~4.4%, in-line with growth from 2015-2019), and units were +0.4% in 2021, with total LSR units -6.4% vs. 2019. The full-service segment grew sales 36%, -10.5% vs. 2019, and units were -2.3% in 2021, with total FSR units -15.6% vs. 2019.

@Lauren Silberman