Qatar 22 World Cup may be a disappointment for the brands
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Qatar 22 World Cup may be a disappointment for the brands

As match schedules revolve around Arabian Standard Time this year, we believe viewership figures should be lower vs. prior World Cup tournaments, particularly in Europe and the Americas, which account for more than half of 2018 global viewership. In 2022, there will be a higher proportion of matches scheduled during working hours at 52% for European viewers (vs. 38%/29% in 2018/2014, respectively) and 75% for the Americas.

Brands can monetize their exposure to the World Cup by selling official replica jerseys, balls, soccer boots, and a broader halo effect for the brand. However, we can estimate the impact through apparel sales and quarterly movements in the EMEA and LatAm segments, with EMEA benefitting from World Cup and Euros every two years and LatAm every four years. Throughout previous World Cup tournaments, the most significant shipping periods for merchandise have been Q4, the year prior when wholesale orders start to be delivered, with some impact in the following two quarters.

Countries typically "launch" their jerseys 3–4 months before the event, but leading brands will have already sold much of the volume into the wholesale channel. Undoubtedly, brands will try to sell more products direct-to-consumer (D2C) than in prior events, implying more sales in the immediate run-up (i.e., 3Q/4Q). This time around, with the world cup commencing during November vs. the usual June-July period, we may expect to see some uplift to sales in the current 2Q period via wholesale stocking (particularly of footballs) and some acceleration into 4Q as the merchandise is released via D2C channels.

However, relative to the past two World Cup tournaments, more matches are held during working hours for audiences in Europe and N. America, implying lower viewership and fewer fans gathering in bars, clubs, and fan zones (given the weather), which may be a motivation for buying fewer replica shirts.

@Simon Irwin