Brazilian Groceries: The Price-Quality Battleground
Despite its less discretionary profile within the retail universe, a decline in Brazil’s total real disposable income could be a headwind for retail food sales. People continue to look for better value propositions and prices when shopping for groceries, and the C&C segment could continue to gain share of wallet and penetration within the retail food market.
According to the Brazilian Association of Wholesalers and Cash & Carry (Abaas), there are currently ~1,400 C&C stores. In this highly competitive segment, the first mover has the advantage. @Marcella Recchia and team estimate there is room to open a considerable number of new C&C stores in the country over the next five years.
We calculate the implied number of new C&C stores (at a mature level) based on the market size projected by Euromonitor. We review calculations suggesting potential ahead for C&C in the coming years and examine the limitations of our analyses using store and sales area penetration methodologies.
The proportion of patients starting GLP or GIP-GLP treatment without prior diabetes treatment has risen substantially in recent quarters. Our analysis accords well with historical Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in '21 and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro in '22 commentary and brings the data forward to look at 1Q 2023.
The European utility sector has seen little differentiation in performance across the past three months, with a 9% increase in absolute terms and a 5% outperformance versus the MSCI Europe. Energy prices have fallen, but windfall taxes and price caps introduced in 2022 could limit near-term negative earnings per share (EPS) momentum. But the sector has already de-rated to reflect this.
With the European Green Deal announced in 2019, Europe was the first to declare its ambition to be a climate-neutral continent. COVID-19 and the complexities of European green subsidies meant that considerable funds are still to be deployed. In the meantime, the US Inflation Reduction Act (announced in July 2022) has received significant attention owing to the simplicity of the mechanism and the potential for a more favourable policy to attract investment into the country. This policy move has prompted the European Commission to respond with the proposed Green Deal Industrial Plan (“GDIP”) to mobilise various forms of state aid for the green transition.