China upholds most favorable emerging market consumer environment
Spotlight on emerging markets macro indicators: Even with a drop across its measurements, China maintains first place in the 2019 momentum barometer whereas Mexico is fueled by winds of change.
In addition to 13,285 detailed face-to-face interviews, the Emerging Consumer Survey 2019 by our Credit Suisse Research Institute consolidates a cross-sectional year-on-year analysis of consumption related drivers in the "barometer" of macro momentum.1
The report details six macroeconomic indicators influencing consumer sentiment in India, Brazil, China, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Russia, and Turkey.
Consumer confidence, real retail sales growth, real wage growth, real interest rates, private sector credit growth, and real house price growth help gain insight into the "nature of immediate macro challenges and tailwinds at work in these countries."2
This economic analysis provides a factual backdrop to the consumption behavioral components observed in the survey. The result is a heat map, with scores consolidating the six metrics for each country’s historical range since 2010, detailing the consumer environments' favorability.
Stimuli and challenges
The average 2019 country macro momentum score across the eight countries has declined slightly from 41% in 2018 to 39% in 2019, due largely to one major score fall. Still, four of the eight economies recorded a higher score in 2019 relative to their 2018 average scores:
- China keeps the first place in our EM macro momentum scorecard for the third consecutive year, though recording a drop in its average score across the six metrics from 73% in 2018 to 66% in 2019. At 6.2%, real wage growth is at its slowest pace in seven years.
- Thailand is in second place and has gained 10% points year-on-year (YoY) due to an across-the-board improvement in all metrics. Up by 14% YoY, the pace of real retail sales growth is the sharpest across the eight countries.
- Mexico has upgraded three places to fifth position in our scorecard, with the largest positive average score differential and by far the largest YoY momentum improvement of 19%. The 2018 political transformation and an increase in wealth based on positive real house price growth have propelled consumer confidence to its strongest level since 2001.
- Turkey had a major fall in its momentum average score by 44% YoY, going from second place in 2018 to last in 2019. Real retail sales growth are at a post-2010 record low, and real interest rates have risen due to the country’s strongest currency crisis since 2001.
1 Article based on The Emerging Consumer Survey 2019
2 "The EM macro barometer", The Emerging Consumer Survey 2019, Alexander Redman and Arun Sai
Download the report to find out more about the influencing consumption behavior in India, Brazil, China, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Russia, and Turkey.